Girish Gupta

HOME

PHOTOS

VENEZUELA ECON

ONLINE

Twitter
Instagram
Facebook
LinkedIn
AngelList
Keybase
GitHub
IFTTT

BY COUNTRY

Afghanistan
Brazil
Colombia
Cuba
Ecuador
Egypt
Guyana
Iraq
Jordan
Lebanon
Mexico
United Kingdom
Venezuela

BY MEDIUM

Text
Photo
Radio
TV/Video

BY PUBLISHER

Al Jazeera
BBC
BuzzFeed
CBC
Christian Science Monitor
CNN
Daily Mail
Data Driven Journalism (EJC)
Datum
Ecologist
Economist Intelligence Unit
Emerging Markets
Financial Times
Foreign Policy
France 24
Fusion
GlobalPost
Guardian
Independent
La Prensa (Panama)
LatinFinance
Mancunion
Monocle
National (Abu Dhabi)
New Internationalist
New Statesman
New York Times
New Yorker
NPR
PBS
PRI
Radio France Internationale
Reuters
RTE
Sky News
Sun
Sunday Times
Telegraph
TIME
Times of London
USA Today
Vice
WLRN

ABOUT

About
CV
Contact (PGP Key)


Maduro insists that petrol prices will not be raised
Dec. 16, 2014 — Caracas, Venezuela

Published by Economist Intelligence Unit

Event

The president, Nicolás Maduro, indicated in mid-December that his administration does not intend to raise petrol prices, currently the lowest in the world, even as a steep drop in global oil prices has a marked impact on fiscal revenue.

Analysis

In an interview with a leftist former vice-president, José Vicente Rangel, Mr Maduro claimed that there is "no hurry" to raise prices. Petrol prices are kept artificially low in Venezuela thanks to generous government subsidies that have an opportunity cost of around US$12.5bn annually. Mr Maduro admitted that the issue of raising petrol prices is politically sensitive; when a previous government tried to do so in 1989, widespread rioting broke out. However, Mr Maduro did say that the cost at the pump should at least cover production costs, implying that an increase would be a pragmatic move.

The economy continues to suffer from the recent sharp decline in global oil prices. The weekly price of the country's oil basket—which is around US$7 lower than international market prices, owing to the country's heavier crude—was released on December 14th, a Monday rather than the previous Friday (as is customary), in what represents another sign of worry within the government. The basket was priced at US$57.53/barrel, below the US$60/b budgeted figure. Annual consumer price inflation, last reported in September, was running at more than 60%. The country's currency has fallen by 65% on the black market this year alone, to BsF184:US$1 in mid-December, compared to the strongest official exchange rate of BsF6.3:US$1. In the interview with Mr Rangel, Mr Maduro reiterated his plan to adjust the Sicad II exchange rate, the country's third exchange rate, which currently stands at around BsF50:US$1. However, he insisted that the strongest rate would continue to be used only for priority goods. Many Venezuelans say that they are unable to obtain dollars at the preferential rate.

These developments continue to worry investors. The government's benchmark 2027 bonds fell following Mr Maduro's interview to their lowest levels (on close) since before the former president, Hugo Chávez (1999-2013), came to power. Although the government's willingness to pay its debts appears secure, its ability to do so could come under threat unless it makes much-needed pragmatic policy reforms.

Impact on the forecast

We have made no changes to our economic forecasts at this time and will wait to do so until an official policy announcement is made by the government.

Filed from
Caracas, Venezuela






More...

Advisers urge deep discount in Venezuelan cryptocurrency offering
Jan. 16, 2018


Inflationary math
Dec. 12, 2017


Venezuela money supply up 14 percent in one week, fastest rise on record
Dec. 1, 2017


How a defrocked judge became the chief enforcer for Maduro's Venezuela
Nov. 15, 2017


De cómo un juez destituido se convirtió en el principal artífice judicial del presidente de Venezuela
Nov. 15, 2017


The 'Venezuela Econ' app: Harnessing data to understand a spectacular economic meltdown
Nov. 6, 2017


Venezuela's monthly inflation rises to 34 percent: National Assembly
Sept. 7, 2017


Ousted Venezuelan prosecutor says she fears for her life, will keep fighting
Aug. 10, 2017


Venezuela quells attack on military base, two killed
Aug. 6, 2017


Exclusive: Venezuelan vote data casts doubt on turnout at Sunday poll
Aug. 2, 2017


All eyes on Venezuela military after protests, vote
Aug. 1, 2017


U.S. 'sweetheart' of Venezuela sees worrying signs of authoritarianism
Jul. 29, 2017


Venezuela money supply surges 10 percent in one week, fastest in 25 years
Jul. 29, 2017


Exclusive: At least 123 Venezuelan soldiers detained since protests - documents
Jul. 6, 2017


Venezuela hikes minimum wage 50 percent, effectively down 17 percent
Jul. 2, 2017








© Girish Gupta